Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi announced recently that he will leave office when his third presidential term ends in April 2030, reversing earlier expectations that he would seek to extend his rule indefinitely through constitutional changes.
Observers have offered competing explanations for the announcement. Some analysts suggest el-Sisi may be attempting to preempt possible military intervention if Egypt's economic situation deteriorates further, or that he is using the declaration to rally popular support while keeping open the possibility of reversing course, as he has done before. In 2013, el-Sisi denied he would run for president before doing so. In 2017, he pledged to preserve constitutional term limits before leading a constitutional amendment in 2019 that extended his tenure.
A third possibility, which the article's author identifies as more plausible, is that el-Sisi is engineering a controlled succession to preserve military dominance after his departure. During his announcement, el-Sisi cited Article 200 of the constitution, amended in 2019, which grants the armed forces responsibility for protecting Egypt's "democracy" and the country's "gains, rights and freedoms." Article 234 requires presidential approval from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces for defence minister appointments.
El-Sisi has proposed establishing a committee to select candidates for specialized military training. Applicants would hold doctoral degrees, be aged 40 to 50, and spend 30 months at the Egyptian Military Academy. The programme would also train future ministers, governors and parliament members.
The proposal, combined with the constitutional articles, appears structured to maintain military control over Egypt's political system beyond el-Sisi's presidency. A military-managed transition is unlikely to prosecute el-Sisi for alleged crimes, including the 2013 coup against Mohamed Morsi that involved massacres and mass arrests, or for economic mismanagement. Egypt's debt stands at 81 percent of GDP. The Egyptian pound has lost more than 80 percent of its value against the US dollar since 2014, while inflation exceeds 460 percent.
The article's author, identified as a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, notes that Egyptian public response to a military-controlled succession process that bypasses popular election remains uncertain.